Horizon (HBNC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Horizon Bancorp's positive outlook is supported by a higher earnings and profitability forecast, leading to an increase in price target multiples to 10.0x for 2026 estimates. The company's proactive measures resulted in a notable improvement in its return profile, with a projected 50 basis points boost to return on assets (ROA), contributing to a stronger and cleaner balance sheet. Additionally, the elevation of the target price to $19 reflects a projected total return of approximately 26% in a base case scenario, underscoring the company's robust financial positioning.

Horizon Bancorp's negative outlook is predominantly driven by a reduced earnings and profitability forecast, which is expected to pressure its valuation and lead to lower multiples akin to current levels of 7.4x projected 2026 earnings. Contributing factors include anticipated slower loan growth in the low single digits, increased pressure on net interest margins, and rising expenses projected at 6%-7% year-over-year due to ongoing investments and deteriorating credit trends. Consequently, these elements are expected to culminate in negative returns, with a theoretical price target indicating a decline of 13%.