GPK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Graphic Packaging Holding Co. is experiencing flat to slightly increased volume growth driven by its strategic tuck-in acquisitions, which expand its reach into growth categories and regions. The company anticipates significant financial benefits from productivity enhancements, projecting annual improvements of $50–70 million, equating to 5–6% EBITDA growth and double-digit EPS growth despite stable volume levels. Furthermore, GPK's ability to manage rising commodity costs through pricing, volume mix, and stable margins presents a favorable outlook, supported by increased capital expenditures for future growth initiatives.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co. is experiencing a decline in projected EBITDA for Q3/FY25/FY26, reducing estimates from $405 million to $380 million, primarily due to persistent softness in food volumes and ongoing price and cost pressures. The company faces challenges in the consumer packaged goods sector, with sales in key categories like granola bars and cereal experiencing weaknesses, leading to a negative outlook for the second half of the fiscal year with anticipated volume declines of -2% or worse. Additionally, oversupply in bleached paperboard is limiting the company’s pricing power, alongside rising capital expenditures, which may extend the deleveraging timeline and negatively impact future free cash flow projections.