GPK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Graphic Packaging Holding Co. continues to demonstrate flat to slightly increased volume growth, driven by a strategic tuck-in acquisition approach that targets expansion into growth categories and regions. The company is positioned to achieve significant productivity enhancements, projected to generate annual improvements of $50-$70 million, translating into EBITDA growth of 5-6%, free cash flow growth of 10%, and double-digit earnings per share growth, despite stable volume metrics. Furthermore, Graphic Packaging is likely to offset rising commodity input costs through effective pricing strategies and has the potential for improved paperboard pricing dynamics, which may stabilize margins in contrast to industry norms.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co. has revised its EBITDA forecasts downward, projecting $380 million for Q3 and $1.435 billion for FY25, reflecting ongoing challenges from soft food volumes and price/cost pressures. The company's revenue performance has been impacted by declining unit sales in key categories and expectations of continued volume contraction in the second half of the fiscal year, suggesting significant headwinds from inflation and sluggish consumer packaged goods demand. Additionally, oversupply in the bleached paperboard market restricts price increases, while increased capital expenditures are expected to prolong the deleveraging timeline, posing further risks to free cash flow estimates of $500-$600 million for FY26.