GPI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Group 1 Automotive has demonstrated substantial growth, achieving total revenue of $19.9 billion in 2024, bolstered by a significant acquisition of the Inchcape UK deal, which is projected to contribute approximately $2.7 billion in annual revenue. The company's strategic expansion into the UK, which now accounts for about 30% of its new vehicle unit volume, has nearly doubled its regional footprint while driving margin improvement through effective restructuring efforts. Additionally, strong performance in aftersales and financing & insurance (F&I), with respective increases of 12% and 11%, has contributed to around 300 basis points of operating leverage, further enhancing the company's financial outlook.

Group 1 Automotive is facing a negative outlook due to a projected 5% decline in AEBITDA, expected to reach $990 million, coupled with a significant reduction in industry demand, which has dropped over 20% from peak levels. Additionally, the company reported an 11.4% decline in adjusted EPS to $39.21 and experienced an EBITDA margin decrease to 4.6%, reflecting an 8% year-over-year contraction. While same-store performance remained competitive, these financial metrics indicate underlying challenges that could affect the firm's future profitability.