Grocery Outlet (GO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is making substantial strides in its restructuring efforts, including plans to stabilize new unit growth with the addition of 30-35 stores in 2026 and a significant increase in store refreshes, indicating a commitment to improving overall store quality and customer experience. The company is also focused on enhancing its merchandise selection by maintaining a steady inventory of approximately 400 core items and refining its supply chain and IT capabilities, which should contribute to operational efficiency. Notably, positive traffic trends were observed in November, especially in the second half of the month, suggesting a favorable customer response and laying the groundwork for a return to normalized growth in the years ahead.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp has issued a pre-announcement indicating a slight miss in its expected results for 4Q25, primarily due to weak sales trends exacerbated by government shutdown issues affecting SNAP benefits. Sales performance has deteriorated, with EBT-related comps down by 8.2% and overall average ticket pressure attributed to a decline in units per transaction, highlighting the diminished spending power of the company's core customers. As a result, 4Q comp expectations have been revised to flat, representing a significant decline from earlier projections of 0% to 1%, reflecting broader economic challenges and marketing issues faced by the retailer.