GL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Globe Life Inc. benefits from a favorable trend in the life insurance industry, characterized by a consistent improvement in financial metrics such as reduced liability tail risk and enhanced returns, contributing to increased free cash flow conversion. Premium growth projections indicate a robust 4%-5% increase for life insurance and a notable 9%-11% rise for health insurance in the upcoming year, bolstered by positive net sales across its subsidiaries. Additionally, the operating environment remains supportive, driven by higher interest rates, demographic trends, and advancements in technology, all of which are positioned to further enhance the company's profitability and growth prospects.

Globe Life Inc. is facing a challenging financial outlook, as management's guidance of operating earnings per share of $14.60-$15.30 for 2026 reflects only a 3% growth at the midpoint, which is below historical averages largely due to significant assumption updates. The decline in free cash flow conversion from approximately 80% in 2013-2015 to around 60-65% from 2018-2021 has raised concerns, especially since the market primarily values the company based on GAAP earnings, which may not fully represent long-term economic viability. Furthermore, the organization is grappling with potential risks such as ongoing legal scrutiny, increasing health utilization that could pressure margins, and challenges in salesforce recruitment, all of which could negatively impact revenue growth going forward.