Glaukos (GKOS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Glaukos is Buy-rated on shares based on positive ophthalmologist survey checks showing high anticipation for the company's novel iDose sustained-release drug delivery implant, as well as strong expected volume growth and utilization among high-volume SLT/DSLT physicians. The potential for an LCD outcome and the positive momentum of their pipeline products, including an upcoming treatment for demodex blepharitis, reinforce our bullish outlook. However, potential revisions to the proposed LCD could lead to even greater revenue growth in the long term.

Glaukos is facing a challenging time with the implementation of LCDs, which will require patients to undergo unnecessary "step ladder approach" treatment regimens in order to access iDose, a superior medical/surgical procedure. Additionally, the proposed LCD criteria will limit the patient's ability to receive MIGS, which is not supported by any clinical evidence and could potentially delay care and increase patient burden. This could lead to a slower-than-expected iDose ramp and potentially prohibitive LCDs, which could negatively impact CKOS's revenue growth and financial performance going forward. Furthermore, there are concerns about reimbursement changes, competition, and potential macroeconomic headwinds that could also affect the company's financials. In the bear case scenario, Glaukos could see high single-digit revenue growth with lower-than-expected iDose and Epioxa volumes, resulting in a lower target price of $88 per share. In the base case, double-digit revenue growth is expected with investments in the pipeline, leading to a target price of $150 per share. However, these assumptions are subject to potential risks, such as a slower-than-expected iDose ramp or pushback from payers and physicians, that could impact the company's financial performance going forward.