Genius Sports (GENI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Genius Sports Ltd is projected to experience significant improvements in its financial performance, particularly in its Media Technology revenue, which is expected to grow by approximately 30% year-over-year and see a notable acceleration in growth in the second half of 2025, largely due to strong demand for in-game advertising ahead of the NFL season. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin is anticipated to increase to 23.0%, driven by enhanced gross margins and operating leverage, while its free cash flow (FCF) is forecasted to grow at a robust 75% compound annual growth rate through 2028. Additionally, the anticipated expansion in Media gross margins from 47.6% to 52% by 2028 reflects the stability of its cost structure and positions the company for improved profitability in its key product areas.

Genius Sports Ltd. experienced a decline in its 3Q EBITDA margin by 90 basis points year-over-year to 20%, attributed to timing issues related to contract wins in European leagues and increased costs associated with the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS). The company also faces challenges in the U.S. market, as a tax increase in Illinois led to a drop in the percentage of wagers placed with legal operators, exacerbating concerns over lower-than-expected global sports betting Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR). Furthermore, operators are facing pressure to meet growth targets while relying on costly promotions, which may strain margins and contribute to significant revenue losses if key agreements remain unrenewed.