
Genius Sports (GENI) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Genius Sports (GENI) Analyst Ratings
Bulls say
Genius Sports is viewed positively because it beat 2Q revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates by 6% and 17%, then raised 2026 guidance to $1,005 million-$1,025 million of revenue and $285 million-$295 million of adjusted EBITDA, signaling stronger operating momentum and margin expansion. Its largest betting segment is benefiting from exclusive official data, higher take rates, and a quasi-duopoly position, while the new Kalshi and Polymarket deals show prediction markets are becoming an incremental revenue stream rather than a risk. Media growth also improved, with revenue up 7.6% above expectations and both legacy GENI Media and Legend growing more than 20% year over year, supporting the case for durable top-line growth, synergy capture, and stronger free cash flow.
Bears say
Genius Sports is viewed negatively because its bull thesis depends on sports betting GGR growth through '25 and on stronger pricing power than the company may achieve, yet the bear case expects only a slight medium-term increase in take rate as negotiations with operators remain unfavorable. With revenue pressured and high fixed costs, the company may see minimal margin expansion from current levels, especially if live betting adoption disappoints and limits monetization. The quant model also reinforces caution: despite strong growth characteristics, its weakest style exposure is Quality, signaling a less stable earnings stream and weaker underlying fundamentals.
This aggregate rating is based on analysts' research of Genius Sports and is not a guaranteed prediction by Public.com or investment advice.
Genius Sports (GENI) Analyst Forecast & Price Prediction
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