Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Golden Entertainment Inc. has demonstrated strong financial performance in its Nevada Locals Casinos segment, achieving a 7% year-over-year increase in EBITDA and a notable 170 basis point expansion in EBITDA margin to 46%. Management has highlighted the continuation of positive trends into the third quarter and anticipates further benefits from new tax legislation scheduled for 2026. Additionally, the company's ongoing share repurchase program, which totaled $15 million in the second quarter, reflects a commitment to enhancing shareholder value amidst a favorable economic outlook for the southern Nevada gaming market.

Golden Entertainment Inc. experienced a notable decline in its financial performance, particularly within its Tavern business, where 2Q revenues and EBITDA fell by 7% and 25% year-over-year, respectively. Furthermore, at the STRAT, occupancy rates plummeted to 60%, reflecting a significant year-over-year drop of 1,600 basis points, even as EBITDA only declined by 5% due to mitigation strategies. Overall, the company's reported 2Q revenues and EBITDA of $163 million and $38.4 million represented decreases of 2% and 7% year-over-year, falling short of consensus estimates by 2% and 1%, respectively, which underscores the challenges currently facing the business.