Genesco (GCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Genesco Inc. has significantly raised its full-year fiscal 2026 sales outlook, projecting an increase of 3%-4% in total revenue, which surpasses its previous guidance and the consensus estimate. The company is also anticipating a substantial improvement in comparable store sales, now expecting growth of 4%-5%, an increase from earlier projections of 2%-3%. Furthermore, management reports robust early performance, with stores experiencing approximately a 25% lift in comparable metrics due to enhanced customer traffic, conversion rates, and transaction sizes, indicating solid operational momentum across its segments.

Genesco Inc. faces significant challenges as its gross margin (GM) guidance has been revised downward, with expectations of a contraction of 50 to 70 basis points in the third quarter and a decline of 50 to 60 basis points for the fiscal year 2026. The Schuh Group, in particular, is experiencing adverse conditions driven by industry-wide traffic and promotional headwinds in the UK, significantly affecting foot traffic and sales during key months. Furthermore, overarching concerns about weakening consumer spending trends, influenced by macroeconomic factors and rising prices, pose continued risks to Genesco's overall financial performance.