TechnipFMC (FTI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TechnipFMC's stock outlook is supported by a record adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.8% in its Subsea division, reflecting a significant increase of 450 basis points quarter-over-quarter, alongside management's robust 2026 margin guidance of 20.5-22%. The company demonstrated strong financial performance with free cash flow of $261 million exceeding expectations, enabling management to raise its full-year 2025 target by 20% to a midpoint of $1.375 billion, while also committing to return over 70% of free cash flow to shareholders. Additionally, TechnipFMC's ability to differentiate its offerings is expected to enhance pricing power and further drive year-over-year margin improvement.

TechnipFMC faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, primarily due to execution errors which negatively impact project margins and EBITDA margins for the group. The company's reliance on competitive bidding, despite its integrated service offerings, exposes it to pricing pressures and potential margin erosion, particularly given historical operational issues in offshore wind projects and certain geographical areas. These factors together highlight substantial risks to profitability and operational efficiency, raising concerns about the company's financial stability in the competitive offshore services market.