First Solar (FSLR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Solar has demonstrated significant improvements in liquidity, with cash and marketable securities rising to approximately $1.2 billion, bolstered by tax-credit monetization and the potential sale of additional credits worth up to $391 million. The company's focus on thin-film technology is expected to benefit from increasing cadmium telluride spot prices, projected to rise further through 2026, thereby enhancing revenue estimates to approximately $6.3 billion in 2026 and $7.2 billion in 2027, exceeding current consensus. Additionally, the anticipated tax benefits from 45X credits could yield a cash windfall of about $1.575 billion to $1.625 billion in 2025, growing to around $2.4 billion annually when production reaches full capacity, providing a robust financial foundation for future growth.

First Solar faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, including an anticipated reduction in its 2025 guidance and ongoing issues with module quality and underperformance. The decline in average selling prices driven by competition from crystalline silicon (c-Si) technology and the need for First Solar to manage its cost structure adds to the risk of negative earnings impact. Additionally, the company's backlog is shrinking, and the uncertain future landscape due to trade policies and potential low manufacturing utilization rates in Southeast Asia further complicates its financial prospects.