First Solar (FSLR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Solar's financial position has strengthened, with cash and marketable securities rising to approximately $1.2 billion, bolstered by monetization of tax credits and the potential sale of additional credits. Increased pricing for cadmium telluride (CdTe) technology implies a favorable revenue outlook, prompting an upward revision in expected revenues for 2026 and 2027 to around $6.3 billion and $7.2 billion, respectively. The company's gross margins are also projected to improve slightly, alongside a substantial anticipated cash influx from the estimated tax benefits associated with 45X credits, indicating a solid financial trajectory.

First Solar faces significant challenges, with approximately 35% of surveyed investors anticipating a reduction in the company's 2025 guidance, stemming from ongoing quality issues and module underperformance. The decline in average selling prices (ASPs), exacerbated by falling prices of conventional silicon modules, raises concerns about the company's ability to maintain profitability amidst these market pressures. Additionally, with declining backlog coverage and anticipated underutilization of production facilities in Southeast Asia, First Solar's cost structure and earnings outlook appear increasingly tenuous.