First Solar (FSLR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Solar is favored because its 44 GW backlog and 57.9% gross margin in 3Q2026 provide strong revenue visibility and show that a higher U.S. mix is already supporting profitability, even with revenue of $1,231mm below expectations. Its domestic manufacturing footprint, cadmium telluride technology, and independence from Chinese crystalline-silicon supply chains create a structural advantage under Section 232 and Section 45X, while recent U.S. bookings at about $0.36/W suggest firmer pricing and better contract terms. Looking ahead, margin improvement should benefit from South Carolina volumes, declining start-up and underutilization costs, India CuRe conversion, and technology-adjuster value tied to 2027 and 2028 deliveries.

First Solar is exposed to policy risk because its growth and valuation depend heavily on favorable tax credits, IRA support through 2032, and domestic-content incentives that could weaken margins if federal rules change. Its fundamentals are also pressured by execution risk: FY2026 sales guidance fell to 16.0–17.0 GW from 17.0–18.2 GW, 4Q2026 EBITDA guidance was ~$743MM at the midpoint, and management flagged lower-margin volume, underutilization, and a possible Malaysia facility closure. The company’s high-volume, low-visibility manufacturing model is vulnerable to yield swings, supply-chain constraints, and slower bookings from permitting delays, competition, and uncertain international demand.