First Solar (FSLR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Solar's liquidity position has significantly improved, with cash and marketable securities rising to approximately $1.2 billion, bolstered by tax-credit monetization and additional agreements for selling 45X credits, which could generate up to $373 million in proceeds. Additionally, an increase in CdTe spot pricing, along with an anticipated continued rise, supports upward adjustments in the company’s revenue projections for 2026 and 2027, now estimated at around $6.3 billion and $7.2 billion, respectively. The positive financial outlook is further enhanced by an estimated 2025 tax value of $1.575 billion to $1.625 billion from the 45X credits, expected to grow to approximately $2.4 billion annually as the full 14.1 GW capacity comes online.

First Solar is facing significant challenges that could negatively impact its financial outlook, including a majority of investors anticipating a potential reduction in the company's 2025 guidance due to concerns over module quality and underperformance. The price decline of traditional c-Si solar technologies is eroding average selling prices (ASPs) below $0.28 per watt, and First Solar's inability to adapt to advancements from competitors may further decrease demand for its thin-film solar modules. Additionally, working capital issues and the projected lower utilization rates in Southeast Asia highlight the ongoing risks associated with the company's cost structure, which could adversely affect earnings if improvements are not realized.