First Solar (FSLR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Solar has demonstrated improved liquidity, with cash and marketable securities increasing to approximately $1.2 billion, bolstered by tax-credit monetization and a substantial transfer agreement to sell up to $391 million in additional credits. The company's revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been raised to about 2% above current consensus, reflecting a positive outlook for its financial performance, alongside increased gross margins. Additionally, the anticipated cash windfall from the 45X tax credits is projected to reach an estimated value of $1.575 billion to $1.625 billion in 2025, potentially increasing to around $2.4 billion annually as more capacity comes online.

First Solar faces potential challenges as approximately 35% of polled investors anticipate a lowering of the company's 2025 guidance, largely due to ongoing issues with module quality and underperformance. The decline in c-Si prices is resulting in a reduction of average selling prices (ASPs) to below $0.28/W, which could severely affect the company's revenue if it fails to streamline its cost structure. Additionally, policy risks, including weaker enforcement of domestic-content regulations and uncertainty surrounding relief measures, could further compress the company's realized prices and impact its working capital management negatively.