Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Shift4 Payments Inc. has demonstrated robust growth potential, with 2Q25 end-to-end payment volume reaching $50 billion, reflecting a 25% year-over-year increase despite a deceleration from the previous quarter. The significant contributions from the Global Blue acquisition, which is expected to enhance revenue and EBITDA by $305 million and $125 million respectively, underscore the company's strategic expansion efforts. Furthermore, the capital raised for the acquisition, amounting to $3.3 billion, indicates a commitment to growth while positioning Shift4 Payments to potentially outperform industry averages.

The outlook for Shift4 Payments Inc. is negatively impacted by increased industry competition, which may limit the company's ability to gain market share in a mature payments sector marked by inflation and a potential recession. Additionally, the company's significant dependence on the restaurant and hospitality sectors—accounting for 60% of its volume—exposes it to heightened risks from a deteriorating macroeconomic environment. Furthermore, despite slight increases in revenue estimates, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, as indicated by a downward adjustment in price targets and ongoing concerns regarding organic business growth amid subdued e-commerce trends.