FormFactor (FORM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

FormFactor is well positioned for a multiyear upcycle because advanced packaging, AI-related logic and memory, HBM, and silicon photonics are expanding the need for design-specific wafer-level probe cards and related test systems. Its outlook is reinforced by strategic investments and collaborations, including Teradyne’s $300 million stake and the FICT partnership, which validate its IP-rich portfolio, deepen supply-chain integration, and support faster co-development with key customers. Financially, the company expects FY26 adjusted EPS of $3.06, 3Q26 revenue of $260 million-$280 million, and 52.5%-55.5% gross margin, while FY25 revenues were $785 million and 2030 targets call for $1.6 billion revenue and 55% gross margin.

FormFactor is exposed to a highly cyclical semiconductor equipment market where economic slowdowns, volatile chipmaker spending, and concentrated customer relationships can quickly disrupt orders, weaken pricing power, and pressure margins. Its dependence on a few large customers, plus ongoing product obsolescence risk in highly tailored probe card and testing systems, makes revenue and profitability vulnerable, as shown by FY25 excess and obsolete inventory provisions of roughly $15 million. The bearish view is further reinforced by structural China weakness, with FY25 revenues from China falling to $58 million, or 7% of total, while management must also rely on uncertain M&A execution to sustain long-term growth.