FERG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ferguson Enterprises has demonstrated solid financial performance, with projected FY’26 total sales rising to $31.9 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase, driven by a combination of price growth and market resilience. The company reported a substantial 5.8% year-over-year increase in organic revenue for F4Q25, supported by strong demand in non-residential markets, particularly commercial and infrastructure, which saw growth rates of 17% and 15%, respectively. Additionally, Ferguson's gross margin improved to 31.7%, surpassing estimates and indicating effective operational execution and favorable supplier price dynamics, further supporting the company's positive financial outlook.

The financial outlook for Ferguson Enterprises appears negative due to stagnation in key revenue segments, particularly in HVAC, where a 1% decline was driven by affordability issues and a challenging comparison with previous sales benchmarks. Furthermore, the residential end market shows flat year-over-year revenues amidst muted housing starts and reduced repair, maintenance, and improvement spending, highlighting ongoing weakness in demand. Additional risks include potential deflation in key materials, intensified competitive pressures, and the possibility of a prolonged housing downturn or economic recession, which could exacerbate the firm's financial challenges.