FERG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ferguson Enterprises is experiencing a positive financial trajectory, with FY'26 estimated sales projected to rise to $31.9 billion, reflecting a 4% increase year-over-year and an organic growth of 3%. The company's F4Q25 gross margin has improved to 31.7%, up 70 basis points year-over-year, attributable to strong operational execution and effective management of supplier price increases. Notably, the non-residential market has shown resilience, with revenue growth of approximately 15% driven by robust activity in commercial, civil, and infrastructure projects, further reinforcing the firm's strong market positioning in North America.

Ferguson Enterprises has experienced a decline in HVAC revenues due to ongoing affordability issues, which have shifted customer preferences from replacement to repair and servicing, compounded by difficult year-over-year comparisons. The residential end market revenues have remained flat, reflecting weak housing starts and reduced spending on repair, maintenance, and improvement (RMI), with the company acknowledging muted conditions in U.S. residential markets. Additionally, there are significant risks to the outlook, including potential deflation in key product categories, increased competitive pressures, and vulnerabilities tied to seasonal fluctuations and broader economic downturns.