FERG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ferguson Enterprises is projected to achieve total sales of $31.9 billion in FY'26, representing a 4% year-over-year growth driven by solid performance in the non-residential market, which has shown resilience with a growth rate of approximately 15%. The company's gross margin has improved to 31.7%, reflecting effective operational execution alongside supplier price increases, and has exceeded expectations compared to prior estimates. Furthermore, the adjusted operating profit for F4Q25 grew significantly by 13.4% year-over-year, supported by streamlined operations and robust demand in commercial and infrastructure sectors, reinforcing a positive outlook for Ferguson's financial performance.

Ferguson Enterprises faces a challenging financial outlook as HVAC revenues declined by 1%, attributed to ongoing affordability issues leading customers to favor repair and servicing over replacement, compounded by difficult year-over-year comparisons. Additionally, residential end market revenues remained stagnant due to weak housing starts and reduced repair, maintenance, and improvement spending, which could hinder overall growth. Furthermore, significant risks include potential deflation in core product categories, intensified competitive pressure amid slowing demand, and the uncertainty surrounding a possible prolonged housing downturn or recession, which may impede the company’s growth strategy and margin performance.