Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Freeport-McMoRan holds significant positions in major copper assets, including a 49% stake in the Grasberg operations, and has established itself as one of the world's largest copper miners by volume, selling approximately 1.1 million metric tons of copper and over 530,000 ounces of gold in 2025. The company maintains a robust balance sheet and is well-positioned for future growth, with expectations of increased sales to around 1.3 million metric tons of copper and 610,000 ounces of gold by 2030, alongside proactive strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to renewable energy sources. Moreover, the improving clarity on Freeport's multi-year outlook enhances its attractiveness, as the copper market is anticipated to experience a deficit, supporting favorable pricing conditions for their equities.

Freeport-McMoRan's updated capital expenditure (capex) guidance for 2026 of $4.1 billion, significantly lower than earlier estimates, indicates potential operational challenges, particularly given the substantial production cuts of 35% compared to prior guidance. This has led to reduced short-term and long-term valuation estimates, with a nominal decrease in net asset value (NAV) from $36.06 to $35.05, raising concerns about the sustainability of production levels at key assets like Grasberg. Additionally, despite trading below its historical EV/EBITDA multiple, Freeport remains priced higher than North American copper peers, suggesting limited upside potential amid expectations of a 20% decline in consensus EBITDA.