First Bancorp (FBP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First BanCorp is viewed positively because it delivered a strong quarter with EPS of $0.62 versus consensus of $0.54, a record ROA of 2.02%, and better-than-expected net interest income, while margins expanded and credit trends remained stable aside from some seasonal early-stage delinquencies. Its core franchise in Puerto Rico benefits from a low-cost deposit base, a 5.00% NIM, and strong balance-sheet momentum, with 5% loan growth and 6.6% deposit growth in the latest quarter, plus roughly 17% CET1 and 16.9% CET1 at 1Q26 supporting growth and capital deployment. The outlook is also underpinned by favorable local economic conditions, including onshoring, government funds, and management’s ability to sustain high profitability, low-single-digit expense growth, and mid-single-digit EPS growth over the next two years.

First BanCorp is facing a negative outlook because its core franchise is exposed to Puerto Rico’s slowing but still fragile economy, where weaker vehicle sales, softer tourism trends, and the risk of lower loan growth could constrain revenue. Although profitability remains strong with a 1.40% cost of funds in 1Q26, a 7.66% loan yield, and a 1.89% ROA, the analysis expects those metrics to ease as fee income softens, provisioning rises, and credit costs normalize from lower NCOs into the 60bp/70bp range. The company also carries meaningful fundamental risks from its $354.2M unrealized securities loss, higher-than-peers NPA history, and concentrated exposure to Puerto Rico real estate and public deposits, all of which could pressure earnings quality and balance-sheet resilience.