FB Financial (FBK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

FB Financial is supported by a high-quality Southeastern franchise with stronger growth markets, including Nashville and expanding Alabama and Georgia exposure, giving it scarcity value and room for above-peer earnings growth. Fundamental performance has improved over the past two years through efficiency gains and a rising NIM, while 1Q26 showed solid deposit growth to $14.1B, a 3.94% NIM, a 1.4%+ ROA profile, and a CET1 ratio of 11.5%. The outlook also benefits from disciplined M&A, a better core funding mix with core deposits at 80.5% of non-equity funding, and expected mid-to-high single-digit balance sheet and loan growth that should lift NII, fee income, and capital returns over time.

FB Financial is facing a cautious outlook because its recent 1Q26 outperformance was offset by softer revenue growth, and loan growth at 4% LQA may mark the low point if the bank cannot sustain even mid-single-digit expansion. Competitive pressure in Nashville and middle Tennessee, a high cost of deposits versus peers, and a somewhat asset-sensitive balance sheet could limit NIM, EPS growth, and ROTCE, while a $35M unrealized loss on its $1.4B securities book adds further earnings sensitivity. Although credit quality has been solid, with NCOs below 25bp for 10 years and ACL at 1.49%, rising NPAs and macro risks could expose the stock to weaker profitability and lower investor confidence.