Expedia (EXPE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Expedia Group is attractive because it combines scale with improving profitability, having produced $119.6B of gross bookings last year across 415mm room nights while expanding Adj. EBITDA margins into the mid-20% range. Its outlook is strengthened by a shift toward higher-control merchant bookings, advertising growing 25% Y/Y in 2Q26, and B2B gross bookings rising 22% Y/Y in 2Q with over 60% of volume outside the US. Management’s technology unification, One Key loyalty rollout, AI investment, and acquisitions such as CarTrawler and Layla support durable growth, while raised guidance for 2025 and continued cost leverage indicate the model can compound despite tougher B2C growth.

Expedia Group is viewed negatively because its growth is slowing, with 3Q bookings guidance of just +5% to +7% Y/Y versus +12% in the prior quarter, while roughly 2/3 of revenue remains tied to the US consumer and about 2% of 1Q bookings growth was lost to Mexico and EMEA disruption. Although B2B is durable, with $10.7B of bookings and 20%+ growth in 2Q, it carries structurally lower economics, so further mix shift can pressure consolidated margins even as B2C faces faster disintermediation risk from changing discovery habits and AI. At ~14.7x 2027 GAAP EPS, the stock’s discount appears justified by concentrated US exposure, uncertainty around Vrbo and Hotels.com recovery, and added execution risk from the CFO transition.