Evolent Health (EVH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Evolent Health Inc. demonstrates a strong growth trajectory driven by its effective cross-selling of services and the expansion of its risk-based products, with the potential to exceed $2 billion in annual revenue from the Aetna contract alone. The company is well-positioned within the specialty care market, addressing approximately 180,000 to 200,000 cancer cases annually while the total addressable market exceeds 2 million, highlighting significant growth opportunities. Evolent's robust pipeline of $650 million and an increase in revenue growth guidance ahead of its mid-teens target further underscores its positive long-term outlook in the evolving landscape of value-based care.

Evolent Health Inc. is facing a challenging financial outlook as significant declines in membership for higher-margin Exchange plans and anticipated reductions in Medicaid enrollment are expected to result in a notable drop in revenue and EBITDA. The company's revenue projections indicate a potential decline from approximately $285 million to $170 million in non-enhanced revenue due to a shift toward enhanced offerings, exacerbated by management's estimates of declining Exchange and Medicare Advantage memberships as highlighted by public insurers and CMS. Consequently, the adjustment of 2026 EBITDA expectations to the range of $134-$144 million reflects the adverse impact of these membership declines and associated margin pressures.