Evolent Health (EVH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Evolent Health exhibits a strong growth potential due to its unique ability to cross-sell services and expand its risk-based offerings to major clients, with projections suggesting that the Aetna contract could exceed $2 billion in annual revenue. The company maintains a robust $650 million sales pipeline, bolstered by its successful history and recent strong wins, while also demonstrating resilience with top-line growth surpassing mid-teens revenue expectations. Furthermore, Evolent Health is well-positioned in the market for specialty-focused value-based care, particularly as government initiatives continue to promote value-based payment models, which are expected to drive ongoing demand for its solutions.

Evolent Health Inc. faces significant financial headwinds, highlighted by the anticipated decline in non-enhanced revenue from approximately $285 million in 2025 to $170 million in 2026, in conjunction with a projected 10% decrease in exchange membership. The company has revised its 2026 EBITDA expectations to a range of $134-$144 million, reflecting potential challenges stemming from reduced higher-margin Exchange enrollment and a 5% decrease in Medicaid membership, which could impact EBITDA by an estimated $8 million to $10 million. Additionally, the company's Q4 revenue outlook suggests a sequential decline of $8 to $18 million, further amplifying concerns about its financial stability in the near term.