ET Stock Forecast & Price Target

Energy Transfer is well positioned to compound earnings because its diversified midstream platform spans natural gas, NGL, crude oil, refined products, LNG terminalling, and retail/wholesale fuel exposure through Sunoco and USA Compression, with roughly 45% of earnings tied to natural gas and 25% to NGL. Its scale and asset footprint are especially compelling given the largest gas processing capacity in the peer group, an undemanding valuation, and a visible backlog of growth projects that includes Hugh Brinson Phase I reaching full service in September, Phase 2 coming online in 2Q27, and the 4.5 bcf/d Permian pipe egress supporting higher volumes. Fundamentally, the outlook is strengthened by raised FY26 EBITDA guidance to $18.2-$18.6 billion, continued optimization and volume/rate/spread improvement, long-dated export and ethane contracts extending into 2041 and the 2030s, and incremental demand from LNG exports, data centers, and power plants that could add about $0.3 billion of annual EBITDA by 2030.

Energy Transfer is facing a negative fundamental setup because a meaningful share of its near-term upside depends on flawless execution across a heavily regulated, capital-intensive network, while missed construction deadlines, permitting delays, or restrictions on hydrocarbon flows could weaken earnings and the multiple. Although management lifted 2026 EBITDA guidance by roughly $750 million and the company secured 300 kbd of Y-grade contracts plus 90 kbd of added Lone Star Express capacity, much of the reported strength appears tied to optimization, marketing, and temporary benefits such as deficiency payment recognition, legal accrual adjustments, and inventory gains that should unwind, while $5 billion per year of growth spend also raises execution and funding demands. The business still remains exposed to drilling activity and commodity volatility across natural gas, NGLs, crude, and refined products, and with Midstream margins expected to normalize from seasonal strength and some intercompany and one-time items reversing, the durability of earnings growth looks less certain than the headline guidance suggests.