Evolus (EOLS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Evolus Inc. demonstrated solid financial performance in the fourth quarter with projected revenues between $88.6 million and $90.6 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 12-15%. The company has increased its full-year contribution guidance for 2025, anticipating approximately $33 million, and continues to forecast a robust growth trajectory that outpaces the broader aesthetics market, driven by stronger market share and portfolio expansion. Furthermore, management's revenue projections for 2026 suggest a continued upward trend, with expected revenues between $327 million and $337 million, which translates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15-19% over three years, alongside anticipated non-GAAP operating income margins of 13-15% by 2028, suggesting a strong outlook for the company's financial health.

Evolus Inc. faces a negative outlook largely due to a significant downward revision of its long-term financial guidance, with total net revenue now projected between $450-500 million, considerably lower than the previous estimate of $700 million. The company's sales performance of its primary product, Jeuveau, exhibited a concerning trend with 2Q25 sales declining to $59 million, marking a 13% quarter-over-quarter decrease and the first year-over-year decline since its launch in 2019, reflecting deteriorating consumer sentiment in the aesthetic market. Additionally, overall aesthetic sales are expected to decrease by approximately 8% through 3Q25, driven by underwhelming performances of competing products such as Botox and Juvederm, which further indicate weakening demand in the sector.