e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

e.l.f. Beauty is supported by a strong structural growth profile, with management guiding FY27 net sales growth of +18-20% and Rhode expected to contribute about 13 points, while core e.l.f. still adds roughly 5-7 points. The company is also showing meaningful brand momentum, as fall ’26 innovation is resonating, e.l.f. Hair has 99% positive consumer sentiment and about 50% new-to-brand buyers, and Rhode delivered a record $27M DTC sales day with 90,000 new consumers in one day. Although near-term profitability moderates as the $50M tariff-refund benefit is reinvested into marketing, pricing, haircare, and international expansion, that spend appears strategically aimed at sustaining share gains and global scale.

e.l.f. Beauty is exposed to meaningful fundamental pressure from third-party manufacturing reliance, with more than 80% of production tied to Chinese manufacturers and any tariffs, supply disruptions, or partner facility issues likely to weigh on results. Its outlook is further constrained by intense competition and heavy customer concentration, as the top three customers account for nearly 60% of sales and about 40%+ sits with Target and Walmart, making shelf-space risk and retailer friction a major threat to growth. Although rhode materially beat consensus by $54M and a $50M tariff refund added $0.68 to EPS, that boost is temporary, EBITDA margins are expected to remain in the mid-teens range for the rest of the year, and core U.S. demand still appears challenged.