Equifax (EFX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Equifax is favorably positioned because it combines a wide moat in credit data with differentiated workforce and verification services that are difficult for lenders and employers to replace, supporting recurring demand across consumer, commercial, mortgage, and employment-use cases. Its FY26E guidance points to revenue of $6,710 million to $6,780 million, adjusted EBITDA of $2,103 million to $2,157 million, and adjusted EPS of $8.39 to $8.69, while the business mix remains attractive with roughly 40% of revenue from Workforce Solutions and about 25% from international operations, which should help diversify growth beyond the U.S. credit cycle. The positive outlook is further reinforced by management’s AI rollout, with 54 new EFX.AI-powered products launched in 1H26, a 16% Vitality Index, and expected run-rate spending savings of about $150 million from 2026 to 2028, alongside signs of strength in talent solutions and improving mortgage-related revenue opportunities.

Equifax is facing a negative fundamental setup because its recent results and guidance suggest uneven execution in key end markets, with Government revenue falling about 4% y/y in 2Q26 due to contract timing shifts while the firm only reiterated FY26 guidance, leading to lowered EPS estimates from $8.68 to $8.56 and from $10.33 to $9.70 for FY27. Although mortgage revenue is benefiting from share gains through TWN Indicator and VantageScore adoption, the broader mortgage market remains weak with originations declining in the low single digits and rates near 6.6%, while consumer lending growth is expected to moderate and subscription pricing could cap upside from twice-yearly Medicaid and SNAP verification starting in 2027. In addition, the company’s doubled AI cost savings to $150m through 2028 are likely to be reinvested rather than converted into margin expansion, leaving 2027 margins only modestly above mid-term guidance and keeping valuation support constrained by disintermediation risks, cybersecurity exposure, and slower upside in both Government Verification and broader growth.