Equifax (EFX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Equifax is projected to achieve revenue of $6.03-$6.06 billion for FY25, reflecting an increase from prior estimates of $5.97-$6.04 billion, driven by strong performance in its workforce solutions segment. The firm's year-over-year growth in revenue reached 7.2% in the third quarter, aided by a 4.7% increase in EWS, along with notable contributions from government and consumer lending. With the ongoing acceleration of income and employment verification adoption, coupled with stronger-than-expected mortgage originations, Equifax's financial outlook remains robust, suggesting a favorable trajectory for the company's future performance.

Equifax faces a negative outlook primarily due to anticipated declines in EBITDA by 10%, driven by decreasing revenue visibility from insufficient contract wins and heightened competition in the contract compression market. Additionally, the company's updated revenue guidance indicates a worsening outlook with a high single-digit year-over-year decline in mortgage inquiries, compounded by a 40 basis point headwind from foreign exchange rates. The aftermath of a significant cybersecurity breach has not only impaired Equifax's reputation but also led to ongoing lawsuits that adversely impact cash flow, while a relatively high debt load raises concerns about refinancing risks and increased interest expenses amidst a volatile credit environment.