eBay (EBAY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

eBay is supported by a combination of durable marketplace scale, improving operating leverage, and multiple growth catalysts that are showing up in the numbers, with 2Q revenue of $3.134 billion (+14.8% y/y), GMV of $22.4 billion (+14.8% y/y), and non-GAAP operating income of $893 million (+15.2% y/y) all ahead of expectations. Its core fundamentals look increasingly broad-based, as Focus Categories grew 26% FX-neutral and exceeded 40% of total GMV, C2C and recommerce both grew more than 20%, advertising revenue rose 23.7% y/y, and eBay Live GMV increased roughly 8x y/y, while AI-driven listing and search tools deepen buyer and seller engagement across a marketplace with 135 million active buyers and 18 million active sellers. Although the Depop acquisition creates near-term margin and EPS dilution, management guided 3Q GMV growth to 10-12% y/y and raised full-year FX-neutral GMV growth guidance to 11.5-12.5%, indicating that the core business is accelerating and that the transaction is strategically expanding eBay’s presence in Gen Z and recommerce with long-term earnings accretion expected in 2028.

eBay is facing a challenging fundamental setup because its marketplace growth still depends on reaccelerating GMV, sustaining active buyer growth, and reducing buyer and seller churn, while cross-border competition, slower eCommerce growth in key markets, and adverse regulatory changes could weigh on performance. Although the company posted a strong 2Q with GMV of $22.4B, revenue of $3.13B, non-GAAP operating income of $893M, and a 28.5% margin, those results also highlight a business that must keep delivering traffic and conversion gains just to preserve momentum, especially since take rate was flat at 14.0% and revenue quality remains tied to ads and fee monetization. The outlook is further pressured by the need for continued investment with unproven returns to defend GMV growth and by capital allocation risk, including the $1.2 billion Depop acquisition in early 2026, which could prove dilutive before it contributes meaningfully to growth in Gen Z and recommerce.