eBay (EBAY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

eBay is projected to achieve a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $86.1 billion in the upcoming year, reflecting an increase of 8.2% year-over-year, supported by strong contributions from collectibles and off-platform marketplaces. The company's active buyer base remains robust at approximately 135 million, contributing to a favorable outlook for revenue growth, which is anticipated to rise by 16% to 18% year-over-year in the first quarter. Additionally, advertising revenues have notably increased to $544 million, which constitutes 2.6% of GMV and has grown approximately 18% year-over-year, indicating effective monetization strategies and a positive trajectory for overall financial performance.

eBay is facing a negative outlook primarily due to a projected non-GAAP operating margin of 28.3% to 29.2%, which falls short of initial expectations, reflecting ongoing challenges in the competitive e-commerce landscape. The company is at risk of failing to accelerate gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth and sustain active buyer engagement, with concerns about consumer pressure continuing into 2026 and competition limiting growth opportunities. Additionally, shares trading at approximately 12.5 times the estimated 2027 non-GAAP earnings per share signals a structurally slower growth rate compared to peers, highlighting eBay’s challenging position in a rapidly evolving market.