eBay (EBAY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

EBay demonstrates robust performance in the e-commerce sector, with a remarkable $75 billion in gross merchandise volume for 2024 and an impressive year-over-year advertising revenue growth of 21%, now constituting 2.6% of total GMV. The company's international presence is significant, generating over 50% of its GMV from markets outside the U.S., particularly in the UK, Germany, and Australia, while engaging 130 million buyers and 20 million sellers across nearly 190 markets. Notably, the acceleration of its collectibles sector, with a 25% increase in unit sales and substantial growth in gold sales of 34% year-over-year, underscores a vibrant demand landscape that could positively influence future performance.

The analysis highlights several fundamental concerns regarding eBay's financial outlook. Firstly, the company's legacy advertising revenues have declined significantly, with a reported 40% year-over-year decrease in the third quarter, indicating potential challenges in revenue generation from traditional advertising sources. Additionally, eBay's non-GAAP operating margin is projected to fall short of consensus expectations, ranging between 25.8% and 26.3%, while the company's anticipated lower take rate due to seasonal patterns may further constrain profitability amid competitive pressures and macroeconomic vulnerabilities.