Brinker International (EAT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brinker International is supported by a powerful Chili’s-led growth flywheel in which menu innovation, marketing relevance, and operational execution are driving durable traffic gains, with annual customer visits rising to 239 million in FY26 and weekly guests climbing from about 3,400 in FY23 to roughly 4,200 in FY26, still below the historical peak of about 5,200 and leaving substantial runway for further same-store sales growth. Its five-year menu pipeline, only about 60% complete, includes high-impact initiatives such as the Big Crispy platform and future expansions into burgers, tenders, Mexican, and other categories, while 20% of locations already above $6 million in AUV generate restaurant-level margins about 400 bps above the system average and support guidance for roughly 20-40 bps of annual margin expansion plus 3%-5% sales lifts from reimages. The company also has a strong financial and strategic setup, with Chili’s generating $5.3 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026 across 1,114 company-owned U.S. restaurants and 469 franchised locations, while improving unit economics, cash flow, and balance-sheet flexibility should help sustain growth even as Maggiano’s remains an early-stage turnaround and a smaller part of the overall thesis.

Brinker International is facing a fundamentally challenging setup because its recent growth has been heavily dependent on same-store sales and margin expansion, while the next leg of earnings growth relies on a more ambitious unit-opening ramp to 30 annual openings by FY29 that is still in the early stages of execution. Although Chili’s has improved materially, with AUVs rising from roughly $3.3 million to $5.0 million, revenue increasing from about $4.1 billion to $5.8 billion, restaurant operating margins expanding about 660 bps, and Brinker delivering a 12% revenue CAGR, 35% adjusted EBITDA CAGR, and 56% adjusted EPS CAGR through FY26, the company’s outlook is tempered by guidance at the 4%-6% revenue midpoint that trails expectations and by new-store returns of only 18%-20% cash on cash versus peers’ 22% average. The bearish view is further supported by the fact that management’s long-term growth plan depends on more than 300 identified trade areas, 15 approved sites for FY28 and FY29, and a broad development pipeline that still must convert into sustained execution across a menu that remains 40% unfinished and a business mix that is still overwhelmingly concentrated in Chili’s, which generated $5.3 billion of fiscal 2026 revenue and 92% of consolidated sales.