Brinker International (EAT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brinker International Inc. has demonstrated significant financial growth, with Chili's achieving approximately 25% same-store sales growth and a notable 16% increase in traffic over the past year. The company's restaurant margins expanded by 260 basis points year-over-year to 17.8%, reflecting strong operational efficiency, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) more than doubled during the same period. Positive projections indicate continued margin expansion in fiscal year 2026, driven by increased sales leverage and controlled investments, further reinforcing a strong financial outlook for the company.

Brinker International's stock outlook appears negative primarily due to expected EBITDA being 10% below fiscal year 2026 estimates, which raises concerns about the company's earnings potential. The initial FY26 earnings per share guidance of $9.90-10.50, while slightly above consensus, coupled with revenue estimates of $5.6-5.7 billion indicating only mid-single-digit percentage same-store sales growth, suggests challenges in driving meaningful revenue and profit increases. Additionally, key external factors such as consumer spending trends and periodic restaurant industry data may further hinder performance, contributing to an overall cautious view on the stock's future growth prospects.