DRVN Stock Forecast & Price Target

Driven Brands Holdings Inc. exhibits a robust performance across its various automotive service segments, particularly evidenced by Take 5's +6.6% same-store sales growth in Q2 2025, marking 20 consecutive quarters of positive growth. The growth in vehicles serviced per day at mature stores, which increased to 52.9 in 2022 from 44.6 in 2018, reflects operational efficiency and demand for services. Additionally, the company's strategic plans to open 170 Take 5 locations in 2023 and the demonstrated success of franchisees—where approximately 40% are on their second or third development agreement—underscore a strong and expanding market presence.

Driven Brands Holdings Inc. faces a challenging outlook due to reduced consumer spending, particularly among lower-income segments, negatively impacting its revenue projections. The company has revised its same-store sales growth expectations for FY25 to just below the previously estimated 1%-3% range, with a potential negative comp in Q4 2025, signaling ongoing weakness in the Collision industry. Additionally, Adjusted EBITDA forecasts for FY25 have been significantly lowered from $531 million to $451 million, alongside a decrease in Adjusted EPS estimates, highlighting the broader financial difficulties and competitive pressures facing the company.