DRVN Stock Forecast & Price Target

Driven Brands Holdings Inc. has demonstrated notable improvement in customer satisfaction, with its Take 5 brand achieving a year-over-year increase of 1.0% in the satisfaction index, surpassing competitors. The company’s operational efficiency is highlighted by a significant rise in vehicles serviced per day at mature stores, which increased from 44.6 in 2018 to 52.9 in 2022, alongside a rising attach rate reaching low 50s. Additionally, Driven Brands is expanding its footprint with plans to open 170 new Take 5 locations this year, contributing to strong revenue growth and franchisee success, as evidenced by all 2023 and prior cohorts achieving $1 million in average unit volume within 24 months.

Driven Brands Holdings Inc. faces a negative outlook primarily due to a reduction in its target multiple for the Take 5 segment, reflecting a significant decline of approximately 20% in shares of its main public oil change peer since early September. The company is experiencing pressures from a decline in discretionary spending among lower-income consumers, which is further exacerbated by a downturn in the Collision industry, currently estimated at a high-single-digit percentage decrease. Additionally, full-year same-store sales are anticipated to remain at the low end of the previously forecasted range of 1-3%, indicating potential for a negative comp in the fourth quarter of 2025, amidst ongoing challenges such as weak consumer sentiment and deteriorating franchisee relationships.