Domino's Pizza (DPZ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Domino's Pizza, as the world's largest pizza chain, achieved over $19 billion in system sales by the end of 2024, with 99% of its business being franchised and revenue primarily derived from its supply chain segment and franchise operations. The company has consistently gained approximately 100 basis points in market share annually over the past decade, a trend that appears sustainable due to its competitive advantages in digital ordering and national marketing. Furthermore, engaging with platforms like DoorDash and Uber Eats, alongside strong growth in international markets such as China and India, is expected to enhance sales momentum and improve unit economics moving forward.

Domino's Pizza, the world's largest pizza chain with over 21,300 stores, faces a challenging outlook primarily due to a 4% growth deficit compared to peers and ongoing structural headwinds in pizza delivery, which may hinder its ability to achieve long-term growth objectives. The company also faces significant debt obligations of $1.3 billion at a 4.2% interest rate due for refinancing in 2027, which could negatively impact earnings per share due to associated costs. Additionally, anticipated adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2026-27 are below consensus expectations, reflecting pressures from declining restaurant margins attributed to food and wage inflation, and increasing competition from third-party delivery providers and rival chains.