Domino's Pizza (DPZ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Domino's Pizza has demonstrated a solid performance with domestic same-store sales increasing by 5.2%, surpassing estimates, and maintaining a steady market share growth of approximately 100 basis points per year over the past decade. The company's strength is reflected in an 8.3% increase in carry-out sales and a 2.5% increase in delivery, highlighting its effective strategies amidst competition from platforms like Uber Eats and DoorDash. With $19.2 billion in system sales in 2024, Domino's maintains its position as the largest player in the global pizza market, reinforcing a positive outlook for its future financial performance.

Domino's Pizza faces a challenging outlook as the broader quick-service restaurant industry shows signs of slowing, with management indicating that domestic comparable store sales for 4Q are expected to decline compared to 3Q levels. The company's estimates for international same-store sales growth have also been revised downward, reflecting a broader softening in consumer demand, leading to an anticipated 450 basis points deceleration on a two-year basis. Additionally, inflationary pressures related to food and wages are expected to negatively impact company restaurant margins, even as there are slight improvements in supply chain margins.