Dow Inc (DOW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Dow is strategically positioned in the global plastics and chemicals market as one of the largest producers with a strong focus on polyethylene and polypropylene production. Despite a price increase in 2026, the stock remains fundamentally unchanged since the onset of the Iran conflict with no major structural changes in supply and demand. However, we believe that the company has reached the bottom of the commodity cycle and its peak EBITDA earnings could reach $12-13B while forecasted trough earnings for 2025 stand at $3.26B. Despite facing potential risks such as higher raw material costs and undisciplined capital spending, we maintain a positive outlook on Dow and its growth potential in the coming years.

Dow is facing several headwinds including receding demand for polyethylene due to oversupply and weak demand, significant capex commitment for the Alberta cracker project, and potentially higher feedstock costs in an inflationary environment. In addition, DOW has recently split from its parent company DuPont and has a diverse board of directors, but faces challenges in recycling and reducing single-use plastic waste. These factors contribute to our negative outlook on DOW's stock without a permanent asset closure plan or significant growth catalyst to offset these challenges.