Dow Inc (DOW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Dow is positioned favorably because its near-term earnings should rebound as Q4 benefits from roughly $120M of September settlement flow-through, about $125M of lower turnaround expense, and an additional $60–70M TTO step-up, while management expects $700M of in-year TTO progress and about $2B of cumulative savings by 2028. Even though Q3 was pressured by weaker PE pricing and China-related supply pressure, the company’s stable North American demand, improving operating rates, and expected recovery from the commodity trough support a stronger fundamental setup. Longer term, its Transform to Outperform strategy, $3B cost-reduction ambition, and potentially de-risked Alberta project could improve earnings power and reinforce a stronger competitive cost position.

Dow is facing a weaker fundamental backdrop as lowered guidance points to Q3 EBITDA of $1.50B, pressured by a -10cpp July PE settlement, increased China production, and softer global demand, while the expected Q4 rebound still depends on a modest +5cpp September PE settlement and lower turnaround expense. The company’s earnings power is also being constrained by receding PE pricing, persistent weak demand and slower GDP growth, and the likelihood that temporary supply-driven benefits fade after 2Q26, with 2027 earnings at risk of reverting toward 2024 levels. On top of that, roughly $7.5B of capex tied to the Alberta cracker, elevated energy and power costs, and weak FCF conversion reduce flexibility and limit near-term multiple expansion.