DoorDash (DASH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

DoorDash's core U.S. restaurant business is projected to continue its double-digit growth, supported by an expanding non-core marketplace that now accounts for approximately 25% of global Gross Order Value (GOV), reflecting a significant increase of nearly 10 percentage points over the past two years. The company achieved a year-over-year EBITDA margin improvement of 394 basis points, reaching 19.7% of revenue, coupled with a 45 basis point increase in takerate to 13.5%, which underscores its operational efficiency and strengthening market position. Additionally, DoorDash's GOV has grown by 20.6% year-over-year, marking a return to accelerated growth and exceeding consensus estimates for both GOV and revenue.

The financial outlook for DoorDash suggests significant challenges, as the 4Q and 1Q EBITDA projections have fallen short of expectations, indicating an uptick in costs associated with sustaining premium growth. The company's guidance indicates a deceleration in bookings of approximately 200 basis points for 1Q25E, alongside a noted compression in stock multiples due to reduced growth prospects. Additionally, persistent investment risks, including competitive pressures, rising cash burn, and a complex regulatory environment, further complicate the company's financial landscape, indicating a potentially unfavorable trajectory for its stock.