CVSA Stock Forecast & Price Target

Covista is favorably positioned because Chamberlain has already returned to year-over-year enrollment growth one quarter early, with enrollment up 0.5% to 40.8k, and two straight quarters of double-digit application growth suggest the reacceleration may be durable. The company also benefits from Walden’s scale as the largest revenue contributor and from strong domestic demand, while its heavy fixed-cost structure should support attractive incremental margins as healthcare and veterinary enrollment grows. Financially, management raised revenue guidance to $1.93B-$1.945B and expects adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of about 100bps, with FY26E adjusted EPS of $7.95-$8.15 and FY27E revenue modeled at $2.065B.

Covista is viewed negatively because its valuation is vulnerable to political and regulatory pressures, including forecasted Republican losses in the midterms and the new loan caps effective 7/1, both of which could weaken demand in the Med/Vet segment over the coming years. Although F3Q revenue rose 5% y/y to $487M, with Walden up 5% to $187M and Med/Vet up 9% to $103.5M, the mix does not offset the risk that Chamberlain new starts slow and the company misses its recently issued long-term financial targets. The outlook is further dampened by potential unfavorable Ed Dept changes, legacy DeVry-related claims, and investor rotation away from the sector, while management already trimmed F1Q27 Med/Vet revenue to $94.3M and EBITDA to $22.2M.