Carvana (CVNA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carvana is projected to achieve retail unit sales of 748,000 for FY26, an increase from a previous estimate of 722,500, indicating strong demand and market positioning. The company anticipates fourth-quarter revenue of $5.2 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year growth of 46.4%, supported by a forecasted increase in used unit sales of 36.3% year-over-year. Additionally, Carvana’s competitive pricing perception has improved, with 35% of consumers now viewing it as offering better online prices, suggesting enhanced market penetration and consumer attraction.

Carvana Co. is facing a negative outlook as total used vehicle unit sales volume decreased by 2% year-over-year in the third quarter, indicating a slowdown in retail vehicle sales that form the cornerstone of the company's revenue. This decline in sales performance is further compounded by a challenging market environment, where shares are now trading at a multiple more aligned with traditional auto dealers, suggesting multiple compression concerns. Additionally, Carvana's stock has underperformed the S&P 500 index by approximately 13% over the past month, driven by weak comparative performance from its peer, CarMax, and increasing apprehension in the credit markets.