CTO Stock Forecast & Price Target

CTO Realty Growth has demonstrated robust leasing performance, highlighted by an increase in same-property net operating income (NOI) by 0.9% year-over-year and a significant positive cash rent spread of 21.6% on newly signed leases totaling 190,000 square feet. The company has revised its full-year Core FFO/AFFO per share guidance upwards to a range of $1.84-$1.87 and $1.96-$1.99, reflecting strengthened financial performance. Moreover, expectations for same-property NOI growth have been raised to +250 basis points, indicative of the company's ongoing positive leasing trends and potential for valuation upside as it executes on new, accretive investments.

CTO Realty Growth's stock is trading at a significant ~31% discount to its 3Q25 net asset value, indicating a lack of investor confidence and valuation concerns. The company's physical occupancy has decreased to 90.2%, suggesting potential challenges in attracting and retaining tenants, although leased occupancy shows a slight improvement. The financial results were negatively impacted by a GAAP EPS of ($0.77), which fell substantially short of estimates due to a $20.4 million loss associated with the extinguishment of convertible notes, highlighting further operational and financial pressures on the company.