CTO Stock Forecast & Price Target

CTO Realty Growth has demonstrated robust leasing strength, with same-property net operating income (NOI) increasing by 0.9% year-over-year and a notable positive cash rent spread of 21.6% from signed comparable leases totaling 190,000 square feet. The company's guidance for full-year Core FFO/AFFO per share was raised to a range of $1.84-$1.87, indicating an increase from previous estimates, and suggests a positive trend in financial performance. Furthermore, as CTO continues to turnover leases at significant positive leasing spreads and pursue new accretive investments, there appears to be substantial upside potential in the company's valuation metrics.

CTO Realty Growth's stock is facing a negative outlook primarily due to a significant 31% discount relative to its peers based on traditional valuation metrics, underscoring concerns about its market position. The company's physical occupancy has declined to 90.2%, raising concerns about tenant retention and revenue stability, despite a slight improvement in leased occupancy. Additionally, a substantial GAAP EPS miss, reported at ($0.77) largely due to a $20.4 million loss on extinguishment of convertible notes, reflects broader financial vulnerabilities and potential leverage risks amid fluctuating interest rates affecting returns and dividend reliability for common shareholders.