Criteo S.A. (CRTO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Criteo is supported by a meaningful Retail Media growth opportunity and a faster-growing OpenAI partnership, with OpenAI brand integrations exceeding 2,000 and ChatGPT traffic converting at roughly 1.5x to 2x traditional referral traffic. The company’s valuation also appears compelling, trading around 1.6x 2026E adjusted EV/EBITDA, while Retail Media gross spend rose 32% year over year in 2Q and guidance does not yet include any OpenAI or new initiative contribution. Despite mixed execution and Performance Media pressure from larger client spending pullbacks, the combination of secular Commerce Audiences growth, asset value, and takeout optionality supports a constructive outlook.

Criteo is facing a deteriorating fundamental setup because its largest weakness lies in Performance Media, where several large enterprise clients cut spend and management assumed no recovery through the rest of the year, driving Contribution ex-TAC to $255mm, down 12.5% y/y and below expectations. Although Retail Media remains a valuable asset with spend up 31% in constant currency and retention at 113% excluding the largest retailer, its strength is not enough to offset the broader shortfall, especially with 3Q26 guidance calling for further declines and lower revenue, EBITDA, and EPS. The outlook is also pressured by structural risks from privacy changes, Chrome dependence, and intensifying ad-tech competition, which limit visibility and reduce confidence in a durable reacceleration.