Criteo S.A. (CRTO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Criteo is supported by a strengthening commercial rebuild, with qualified pipeline up roughly 30% y/y, U.S. new business revenue up 24%, and agencies rising to about 55% of pipeline from roughly 35% a year ago. Its retail media engine is also showing momentum, as 2Q RM gross spend rose 32% y/y, while the OpenAI partnership is scaling rapidly with more than 2,000 brand integrations and ChatGPT traffic converting at about 1.5x to 2x traditional referral traffic. Despite near-term Performance Media pressure, the stock appears attractive given asset value, takeout optionality, and a valuation near 1.6x ’26E adj. EV/EBITDA.

Criteo is facing a fundamentally weaker outlook because the softness is increasingly structural rather than merely macro-driven, with management assuming no recovery from a “handful” of large Performance Media clients and no meaningful contribution from OpenAI, GO, discovery audiences, or agentic formats. 2Q26 results missed expectations with total Contribution ex-TAC of $255mm, revenue of $428mm, and free cash flow of ($38mm), while Performance Media fell 10.2% and Retail Media, despite strength in the underlying client base, was distorted by scope changes and tougher comps. Even with adjusted EBITDA at $73mm and a 28.7% margin, the lowered FY2026 and FY2027 outlooks, plus regulatory, privacy, and competitive risks, point to limited visibility and persistent pressure on growth and cash generation.