CRCL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Circle Internet Group Inc. displays a robust financial trajectory, illustrated by a significant 20.2% quarter-over-quarter increase in USDC in circulation, reaching $73.75 billion by the end of the third quarter of 2025. The company also reported total revenue and reserve income of $1.68 billion in 2024, which represents a 16% year-over-year growth, driven largely by an increase in its reserve return rate. Further, projections indicate a promising compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 50% for net revenue, expected to rise to approximately $2 billion by 2027, alongside a substantial expansion in adjusted EBITDA from around $300 million to $1.3 billion over the same period.

The analysis indicates that Circle Internet Group is facing significant revenue pressures, with the estimated reserve return rate projected to decline from 4.15% in 3Q25 to 3.14% in 2Q26, marking a substantial near-term headwind. Furthermore, despite improvements in operational efficiency expected to lower adjusted operating expenses to around 13% of gross revenue by 2027, the competitive landscape for USD Coin (USDC) may stall circulation below $120 billion, potentially compressing reserve yields and limiting EBITDA growth. Lastly, the company's valuation reflects a premium compared to peers, trading at an EV/2026 revenue multiple of approximately 9x and a 39x adjusted EBITDA multiple, raising concerns about its sustainability in the current market environment.