Vita Coco (COCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vita Coco Co Inc. is benefiting from a limited competitive landscape and strong market share gains within the coconut water category, contributing to accelerated growth and improved financial performance. Projected modest increases in consumer takeaway for 2025, coupled with anticipated mid-teens growth in 2026, suggest a potential revenue increase of $25 million, reflecting an optimistic outlook for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Additionally, potential drivers such as faster-than-expected category growth and effective retail strategies further support the positive revenue trajectory of the company.

Vita Coco faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, primarily tied to its dependency on incremental price increases due to persistent tariff rates and the short-lived decline in ocean freight costs. As the coconut water category shows signs of meaningful slowdown and difficult comparisons loom, the company risks losing market share, which may lead to downside in current street estimates. Furthermore, while general and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales have improved slightly, projections for an increase this year indicate mounting financial pressures that could further strain profitability.