Vita Coco (COCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vita Coco Co Inc. operates within a high-barrier market, where limited competition has allowed the company to accelerate its growth and gain market share in the coconut water category. The projected strong performance in consumer takeaway, anticipated to yield mid-teens growth in 2026 and add an estimated $25 million in revenue, underscores the positive outlook for the company's financial performance. Additionally, with faster-than-expected category growth and effective retail execution, the company is well-positioned to continue driving revenue and enhancing market share.

Vita Coco faces significant challenges as the coconut water category experiences a meaningful slowdown, potentially leading to accelerated market share losses. The company's general and administrative (G&A) expenses are anticipated to rise in absolute terms, resulting in a percentage of sales that could range from 22-23%, despite a prior decline in G&A as a percentage of sales. Furthermore, the persistent tariff rates and temporary reductions in ocean freight costs create an increased dependency on price hikes, which may lead to a decline in demand elasticity and negatively impact current revenue forecasts.