CNI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Canadian National Railway generated CAD 17 billion in revenue in 2024, with significant contributions from intermodal containers (22%) and key sectors such as petroleum and chemicals (20%), grain and fertilizers (20%), and metals and minerals (12%). The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.87, marking a 1% year-over-year increase, supported by robust labor productivity improvements of 11% year-over-year driven by recent investments and operational efficiencies. Additionally, the positive outlook for the Grain and Fertilizer segment is bolstered by an upward revision in estimates to a 5% growth in 2025, contrasting with the Canadian government's forecast of a 2% decline in grain production, suggesting resilience in CN’s core markets.

Canadian National Railway's year-to-date earnings per share (EPS) growth of 4% falls significantly short of management's prior guidance of 10% to 15%, indicating potential operational challenges. The company's decision to cut future guidance further underscores the ambiguity surrounding its growth prospects, particularly in light of fluctuating trade policies. Additionally, the projected revenue diversification across various sectors—including intermodal and petroleum—may not suffice to mitigate the implications of slower-than-expected EPS growth and the overall uncertain business environment.