Clearwater Paper (CLW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Clearwater Paper is supported by a combination of pricing discipline, resilient demand, and active cost management, as it has launched a $60/ton increase on cup and other extruded products affecting ~70k tons while noting strong backlogs and good demand. The company’s Q226 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $(10)MM to $0MM reflects near-term pressure from $22-24MM of planned maintenance at Lewiston and $5-7MM of higher input costs, yet paperboard shipments are still expected to rise 5% sequentially to ~318k tons and FY26 maintenance guidance remains unchanged. Its outlook is further reinforced by liquidity of about $407mn, expected 2026 working capital cash generation of ~$20mn, potential $27mn from a tax receivable, and $8-12mn of annualized cost savings from Cypress Bend restructuring.

Clearwater Paper is facing a weak fundamental setup because its core paperboard business is exposed to pricing competition, supply-demand imbalance, and customer concentration risk, with 46% of 2025 sales coming from the top 10 customers. Liquidity and credit quality are also pressured, as S&P cut it to B+ in January 2026 and Moody’s to B1 earlier this month, while the company must extend or refinance $275MM of notes and a $79MM ABL facility before they go current in H227 and H226. Although Q126 Adjusted EBITDA was $1.9MM, management guided 2Q26 EBITDA to $0 to -$10MM amid a $22-24MM maintenance outage, $5-7MM of higher input costs, and $3-5MM of ongoing quarterly inflation.