Clearwater Paper (CLW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Clearwater Paper is positioned favorably because it is pushing through targeted May price increases of $60/ton on about 70k tons of extruded products while benefiting from strong demand and sold-out backlogs, which should help offset elevated poly coating and other input costs. Its outlook is further supported by expected 5% sequentially higher paperboard shipments, unchanged 2026 revenue guidance of $1.4-1.5Bn, and about $20MM of working capital improvement that can aid liquidity, which stood near $407mn. The company’s Cypress Bend restructuring, including roughly 20% salaried and hourly role reductions and about $8-12mn of annualized cost savings, along with a sustainability-focused SBS portfolio and potential $50mn of additional insurance proceeds, strengthens the long-term fundamental case.

Clearwater Paper is facing a weak fundamental setup because leverage and refinancing risk are rising as $275MM of notes and a $79MM ABL facility approach current status, while S&P cut the rating to B+ in January 2026 and Moody’s to B1 earlier this month. Although Q126 adjusted EBITDA was slightly positive at $1.9MM, sales volumes of ~303k tons missed expectations and management guided 2Q26 EBITDA to $0 to -$10MM due to a $22-24MM maintenance outage and $5-7MM of higher input costs, implying earnings pressure will persist. The outlook is further constrained by exposure to SBS supply-demand imbalance, imports, and concentration risk, since 46% of 2025 sales came from the top 10 customers and the company is only a small player in a highly competitive paperboard market.