CHKP Stock Forecast & Price Target

Check Point Software Tech is supported by a recurring-revenue cyber platform that still trades at a discount, with shares at 4.3x EV/NTM recurring revenue and 8.0x EV/NTM FCF versus peers at 11.6x and 35x, while a $2B share repurchase authorization adds capital-return support. Its subscription engine remains resilient, with security subscriptions up 11.2% to $323.2M and high-growth cohorts such as email, ERM, and SASE expanding over 40%, led by CTEM at 96% ARR growth year over year. Although near-term product revenue is pressured by a GTM transition, the company is strengthening its AI, SASE, and channel motions, which could improve conversion, reaccelerate growth, and justify a higher multiple over time.

Check Point Software Tech is facing a weaker fundamental setup as a 1Q go-to-market reorganization disrupted firewall refresh and new-business pipeline, drove product revenue down 2.9% y/y, and prompted management to cut FY26 revenue by about $80M at the midpoint. The business also faces margin pressure from unusually tight DRAM supply, with management guiding to a 1% gross margin headwind for the full year, while billings declined 1.0% and product revenue is expected to fall 6.5% y/y in FY26. Although security subscription revenue rose 11% to $323M and RPO grew 7% to $2.59B, the core network security market remains highly competitive against Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks, limiting share gains and near-term upside.