Certara (CERT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Certara is positioned favorably because its core biosimulation software and tech-enabled services address a mission-critical need in drug development: reducing trial time, improving decision quality, and accelerating regulatory approval. The company’s 1Q26 data showed constructive momentum, with software revenue of $49.7M up 7.2% year over year, software bookings up 20%, and net revenue retention of 106%, while the R&MW divestiture should sharpen focus on higher-quality MIDD assets and improve the growth and margin profile into FY27. Supportive industry trends, including regulatory tailwinds, stronger AI budgets, and the Altasciences and NVDA collaborations, strengthen the long-term thesis by expanding Certara’s reach, efficiency, and relevance in computationally intensive discovery workflows.

Certara is facing a negative fundamental setup because FY26 and FY27 estimates were cut after 1Q26, with revenue now seen at $395M and $399M and adjusted EBITDA at $119M and $128M, reflecting only modest software improvement, a weaker services outlook, and continued AI/MIDD investment. The R&MW divestiture has not delivered the expected boost, while the revised FY26 guide is 2H-weighted and management’s new-CEO initiatives appear longer-dated than hoped, leaving investors waiting for proof rather than narrative. Despite software bookings of $48.7M, services bookings fell 14.0% y/y to $66.6M and adjusted EBITDA margin slipped to 29.7%, underscoring inconsistent execution, mix pressure, and limited operating leverage.