CBRL Stock Forecast & Price Target

The positive outlook for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. (CBRL) is primarily driven by its ongoing turnaround efforts, including menu innovation, service improvements, and strategic pricing that are expected to enhance financial estimates and valuation multiples. The company has experienced a significant increase in its loyalty program membership, which is anticipated to support sales growth, while the recent improvements in traffic indicate a recovery trajectory following previous branding challenges. Additionally, the authorization of a $100 million share repurchase plan signals management's commitment to returning value to shareholders, underlining a potentially brighter financial future for the company.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. has significantly reduced its fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, revising expectations from $150 to $190 million down to a range of $70 to $110 million. The company is experiencing declining traffic, with a reported 7.3% decrease in the first quarter and a troubling 11% drop in the subsequent quarter to date, which indicates ongoing consumer challenges. Additionally, the EBITDA margin guidance has been set at a midpoint of 5.0%, reflecting a year-over-year decline, amidst a sales decrease of approximately 2.4%, despite efforts to increase menu pricing to offset inflation pressures.