CBRL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. has demonstrated a strong potential for turnaround through strategic improvements in menu innovation, service levels, and marketing efficiency, which are expected to enhance investor confidence and lead to positive valuation multiples. The company's efforts to grow its loyalty program, which has expanded significantly, along with improving traffic and sales performance in recent quarters, suggest a solid foundation for long-term growth. Additionally, the recent authorization of a $100 million share repurchase plan exemplifies the commitment to returning capital to shareholders, reinforcing the financial health and appeal of the stock.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. has significantly reduced its Fiscal Year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $70 to $110 million, a substantial drop from the previous expectation of $150 to $190 million. In the first quarter of FY26, the company experienced a 7.3% decline in traffic, which further deteriorated to an 11% decrease in the early stages of the second quarter, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer engagement. Additionally, despite menu pricing projected between 4.0% and 5.0%, the expected EBITDA margin has been guided down to 5.0% at the midpoint, which represents a year-over-year decline of 140 basis points amidst overall sales falling by approximately 2.4%.