CART Stock Forecast & Price Target

Maplebear is viewed favorably because its core marketplace continues to expand while monetization deepens: 2Q transaction revenue was $746mm at a 7.2% take rate, advertising revenue reached $297mm at 2.9% of GTV, and the combined take rate rose to 10.1% of GTV. Its outlook is further strengthened by advertising growing +16% Y/Y in 1H26 and 2Q, faster than GTV, which suggests rising operating leverage as retail media, Carrot Ads, and off-platform partnerships scale beyond the core marketplace. In addition, Storefront Pro across 380+ retailer sites, international expansion into France and Spain, and AI-driven engagement support a durable enterprise strategy that can offset competitive pressure while leveraging 2B+ product instances and 22mm unique items.

Maplebear is facing a deteriorating competitive position as Amazon and Walmart deepen grocery investments, while DoorDash and UberEats also intensify pressure, contributing to an erosion of third-party grocery share from roughly 70% in 2022 to an estimated 58% in 2025. Its fundamentals remain solid but not dominant: 2Q GTV rose 14% year over year to $10.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA reached $313 million at a 30.0% margin, yet GAAP EPS of $0.45 missed expectations and the take rate stayed flat at 10.1%. The stock also faces longer-term risks from AI-driven disintermediation, concentrated retail partner relationships, and potentially cyclical advertising demand, making further share pressure and muted multiple support more likely.