Bridgewater Bancshares (BWB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Bridgewater Bancshares is attractive because its core NIM expanded to 2.99% and management expects further modest expansion as higher loan yields, stable deposit costs, and repricing of roughly $743M of loans support spread income. Loan and deposit trends remain constructive despite near-term variability, with 1Q26 core EPS of $0.41, ROA at 0.98%, and NII projected to rise 19% in 2026 and 13% in 2027 on mid-to-HSD organic balance sheet growth. Credit quality and capital also look solid, as the two largest NPLs appear manageable, TBV reached $16.60, TCE increased to 8.62%, and CET1 stood at 9.6% while operating leverage should improve as hiring costs moderate.

Bridgewater Bancshares is facing a pressured fundamental setup because loan, core deposit, and fee income growth are all slowing while operating expenses remain elevated. In 2Q26, operating EPS of $0.45 was only in line with consensus, but core fee income slipped to $2.3M from lower letter of credit and swap fees, and core expenses rose to $21.2M as salaries and benefits increased. Its concentration in Minnesota and reliance on commercial real estate, with over one-third of loans secured by CRE, heighten vulnerability to a weaker local economy or a CRE downturn.