BRSL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brightstar Lottery is supported by resilient lottery demand, with Q1 EBITDA 2% above estimate and in line with Street expectations, while revenues rose 1% Y/Y and adjusted EBITDA increased 15% Y/Y on stronger international land-based performance, global iLottery, and FX benefit. Its outlook is strengthened by reaffirmed 2026 guidance, healthy wager momentum in iLottery and Italy, and a cleaner capital-return story with $72M returned in Q1 plus a near-7% dividend yield and ongoing repurchases. Although U.S. same-store sales were pressured by limited Powerball and Mega Millions jackpots and Q2 is expected to be modestly down Y/Y, the company’s 2H ramp, cashless vending rollout, and new distribution initiatives support a compelling longer-term earnings and free-cash-flow recovery.

Brightstar Lottery is viewed negatively because its first-quarter performance showed only modest total same-store-sales growth of 1%, with Italy up 3% and Rest of World up 6% offset by the US down about 1% and flat US same-store sales below expectations. The company also reported Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $287M, below the modeled $297M, and adjusted free cash flow of $55M, which was hurt by a $42M working-capital drag, signaling weaker cash conversion despite a 48.9% margin. The outlook is further pressured by expected Q2 revenue declines from higher service revenue amortization, contract-renewal risk, inflation-driven consumer weakness, and FX, regulatory, and geopolitical exposure across its international lottery operations.