BRLT Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brilliant Earth Group Inc. demonstrated strong financial growth in the most recent quarter, with net sales increasing by 10.4% year-over-year to $110.3 million, surpassing consensus estimates and the high-end of guidance. The company's total inventory rose by 27.5% year-over-year, indicating strategic inventory management in anticipation of future demand, while total orders climbed by 16.8% to 49,910, pointing to effective customer acquisition and loyalty. Additionally, the notable growth in key segments, with engagement ring bookings rebounding and a 45% surge in fine jewelry bookings, reflects robust performance and solid momentum across the product categories.

Brilliant Earth Group has experienced a significant contraction in both gross margins and adjusted EBITDA, with gross margin down over 300 basis points year-over-year to 57.6%, falling short of market expectations. The company’s adjusted EBITDA margin also declined to 3.2%, reflecting a notable shortfall relative to consensus estimates due to these margin pressures. Furthermore, the outlook for FY25 adjusted EBITDA has been downgraded to $13.2 million from a prior estimate of $16.0 million, indicating ongoing challenges stemming from rising metal prices and increased tariffs.