BRLT Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brilliant Earth Group Inc demonstrated strong financial performance in the third quarter, achieving net sales growth of 10.4% to $110.3 million, surpassing both consensus estimates and the company's own guidance. The company experienced a notable increase in total orders, rising 16.8% to 49,910, alongside a 45% surge in fine jewelry bookings, reflecting robust customer engagement and loyalty. Additionally, total inventory at the end of the quarter reached $49.1 million, up 27.5% year-over-year, highlighting the company's proactive approach in managing its supply chain in response to growing demand.

Brilliant Earth Group Inc. reported a significant decline in gross margin, falling over 300 basis points year-over-year to 57.6%, which was substantially below market expectations and contributed to an adjusted EBITDA shortfall. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin also contracted slightly to 3.2%, reflecting ongoing pressures from elevated metal prices and increased tariffs, leading to a forecasted decline in FY25 adjusted EBITDA to $13.2 million, down from $16.0 million previously. Furthermore, adjusted operating expenses increased to 55.9% of sales, leveraging nearly 300 basis points year-over-year, which also exceeded prior estimates and indicates rising cost pressures that may further impact profitability.