Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Bloomin Brands Inc has demonstrated solid performance in its restaurant segments, with Carrabba's and Fleming's achieving comp growth of +3.9% and +3.8%, respectively, surpassing consensus estimates significantly by 300 basis points and 160 basis points. The company's second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $0.33 exceeded consensus by $0.05, driven by modest comparable sales growth and favorable tax conditions, which effectively mitigated the impact of lower restaurant margins. Furthermore, ongoing sequential improvements in comparable sales underscore a positive trajectory for the company, despite some competitive challenges faced by Outback.

Bloomin Brands Inc has faced significant challenges, as evidenced by a 10% decline in traffic over a three-year period and a notable reduction in 2025 EPS guidance, which was lowered by approximately 20% to a range of $1.00-$1.10, compared to a consensus estimate of $1.23. This marks the second significant guidance cut of around 20% within four quarters, reflecting persistent struggles in maintaining comparable sales performance. Additionally, the company's guidance for third-quarter comps indicates stagnation at -1% to flat, with EPS projections falling short of consensus expectations, further underscoring the company's operational difficulties.