Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Bloomin Brands Inc. demonstrates a promising outlook, particularly with its brands Carrabba's and Fleming's, which achieved comp growth of 3.9% and 3.8% respectively, surpassing consensus expectations by 300 basis points and 160 basis points. The company's second quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.33 exceeded consensus estimates by $0.05, attributed to modest comparable sales improvements and beneficial tax impacts that offset lower restaurant margins. Additionally, while there is a noted decrease in estimates for the future, the sequential improvement in comparable sales indicates a positive trajectory for the company’s performance in the casual dining sector.

Bloomin Brands Inc. has demonstrated persistent weaknesses regarding its operational performance, indicated by a 10% decline in traffic over a three-year period and continued challenges in blended comparable sales. The company has significantly lowered its 2025 earnings per share (EPS) guidance by approximately 20%, now projecting a midpoint between $1.00 and $1.10, which falls short of the consensus estimate of $1.23. Furthermore, the outlook for the third quarter also appears bleak, with guidance for comparable sales expected to remain stagnant or slightly negative, coupled with EPS estimates that are notably lower than consensus figures.