Booking Hlds (BKNG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Booking Holdings continues to demonstrate strong growth, particularly in the US market, where roomnights increased by low double digits, contributing to an expedited growth trajectory compared to previous quarters. The company has successfully expanded its EBITDA margin by 80 basis points through operational leverage, despite facing increased marketing expenses. With an expected acceleration in adjusted EBITDA growth surpassing revenue growth for FY26 and ongoing investments in product development aimed at enhancing traveler loyalty, Booking Holdings is poised for sustained financial strength and margin expansion.

The negative outlook on Booking Holdings’s stock stems from several fundamental factors, including a reduction in long-term growth projections to 3% from 4%, primarily due to concerns about potential AI disruption affecting the company’s business model. Additionally, the company is broadening its services into lower-margin areas like air travel, which poses risks to its overall take-rate and profit margins, compounded by legislative challenges posed by the EU's Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act. Finally, while the stock may be trading at historically low valuations, the cyclical nature of travel and potential economic downturns have not been fully incorporated into the current estimates, leading to heightened uncertainty regarding future performance.