BKNG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Booking Holdings is favored because it combines unmatched global scale in travel with a durable secular shift toward online bookings, a strong position in underpenetrated markets, and product breadth across accommodations, flights, cars, restaurants, cruises, and experiences. Its financial profile is especially compelling, with EBITDA margins in the mid-30s to high-30s, 90% to 95% FCF conversion, more than $1B of net cash, and billions in annual bookings and cash generation that support ongoing buybacks and dividends. Management’s execution on Connected Trip, Genius loyalty, and the transformation program should sustain high-single-digit revenue growth, margin expansion, and mid-teens EPS growth even amid macro volatility and competitive pressure.

Booking Holdings is exposed to a mounting mix of structural and cyclical risks, including AI-driven disintermediation, weaker travel demand from the Middle East conflict, and regulatory pressure from the EU’s Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act. Although management expects FY26 gross bookings, revenue, and Adj. EBITDA to grow high-single-digits and Adj. EPS to rise low-to-mid teens, gross bookings were revised lower on softer flight ticket growth, while the shift into lower-margin categories like air could pressure take-rate and margins. Its valuation also looks vulnerable because the stock is already near the low end of its historical multiple range, yet the market is questioning whether OTA discovery traffic, currently below 1% of room nights from AI channels, can remain durable.