BIRK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Birkenstock Holding's strong financial performance is evidenced by a 13% to 15% revenue growth forecast for FY25, which positions anticipated revenues between €2.3 billion and €2.35 billion, reflecting a potential reported growth of 10% to 12% year-over-year. The brand has demonstrated resilience with a particularly robust back-to-school season, resulting in over 20% year-over-year sales growth at its top wholesale partners, as well as notable adoption of its higher-priced closed-toe products, which now constitute 38% of its sales mix. Furthermore, Birkenstock's expanding presence in the Asia-Pacific region, coupled with significant net new store openings, indicates ample growth opportunities and continued momentum for the brand in both existing and emerging markets.

Birkenstock Holding's recent financial forecasts indicate a decline in overall growth expectations, as the projected sales for FY26 at €2.35 billion reflect a slower increase of 11.9% year-over-year, down from previous estimates of 12.8%. Additionally, the company anticipates a significant negative impact on margins due to increasing tariffs, with a forecasted 100-basis point decline in both gross margin and EBITDA compared to FY25 figures. Moreover, the guidance for FY26 gross margin between 57.0% and 57.5% falls short of analyst expectations and represents a year-over-year decrease, indicating potential challenges in maintaining profitability amidst competitive pressures and external economic factors.