BIRK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Birkenstock Holding has demonstrated robust financial performance, with a 13% to 15% year-over-year revenue growth in constant currency, translating to expected revenues of €2.3 billion to €2.35 billion for the year. The company recorded a significant increase in sales from top wholesale partners, particularly during the back-to-school season, with sales growth exceeding 20% year-over-year, which is indicative of strong consumer demand. Furthermore, the sustained expansion of closed-toe products and the strategic increase in retail locations, particularly in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions, underlines a positive growth trajectory and further enhances long-term financial prospects.

The analysis of Birkenstock Holding's financial outlook reveals several fundamental concerns contributing to a negative perspective on its stock. Sales expectations for FY26 are forecasted at €2.35 billion, reflecting a deceleration in growth compared to previous estimates, which is compounded by anticipated declines in both gross margin and EBITDA due to tariffs, resulting in a projected adjusted EBITDA of €714.8 million, down from €758.7 million. Additionally, the company's guidance on gross margins has fallen short of market expectations, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amid unfavorable channel mix and pricing dynamics, which may require significantly higher sales volumes to sustain revenue growth.