BFST Stock Forecast & Price Target

Business First Bancshares is well positioned by resilient core earnings power, with 2Q NII of $77.8 million and core NIM expanding 8 bp to 3.68% as loan yields rose and deposit costs fell, signaling favorable balance-sheet repricing. Credit quality is also improving, as NPAs declined from $121.7 million to $105.2 million and management expects further resolutions and a lower NPL run rate by year-end, while the allowance remained solid at 1.02%. Even with softer fee income and higher expenses, the company’s Organic growth, share repurchases below 1.2x TBV, and capital ratios rising to a 10.4% CET1 support a constructive fundamental outlook.

Business First Bancshares is facing weakening core profitability as 2Q26 core EPS of $0.71 missed estimates on lower fee income and higher non-interest expense, while core PPNR/share slipped to $1.00 from $1.03 in the prior quarter. NII was pressured by $1.2 million of non-accrual interest reversals and lower PAA benefits, with NIM excluding PAA down 4 bps to 3.60% and loan yields excluding PAA down 25 bps to 6.54%, signaling margin compression. Although credit metrics improved as NPLs fell 27 bps to 126 bps and NPAs dropped 15 bps to 123 bps, core EOP loans excluding Progressive declined $103 million and management still sees mid-single digit organic growth amid pricing and M&A execution risks.