Brunswick (BC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brunswick is supported by a favorable segment mix in which the largest earnings opportunity remains a recovery in Propulsion and Boats alongside continued growth in the more recurring parts, accessories, and technology businesses, with Mercury targeted to reach about $3B+ of revenue and low-to-mid-teens margins versus about 9% in 2025, Engine P&A expected to approach about $1.5B of revenue at low-20% margins, and Navico projected to grow at a 7%-12% revenue CAGR with margins moving into the low teens. The company’s FY26 guidance was increased to revenue of $5.65B-$5.80B, adjusted EPS of $4.00-$4.50, adjusted operating margin of 7.5%-8.0%, and FCF in excess of $350M+, reflecting resilience despite tariffs, rates, and broader geopolitical uncertainty while assuming a flat to slightly up U.S. retail boat market and stable macro conditions. Operational momentum in 1Q26 also reinforced the outlook, as Propulsion sales rose 17.3%, Navico sales rose 7.3% with margin expansion to 8.2%, P&A sales rose 13.5% with margin expansion to 16.7%, Boat sales rose 6.1%, and Freedom Boat Club trips increased 20% y/y, all of which point to strong brand demand, improving mix, and a growing recurring earnings base.

Brunswick is facing a more cautious fundamental outlook because its apparent earnings improvement still depends heavily on margin recovery in Propulsion and Boats, leaving execution as the key risk even after management’s strong performance. Although 2Q26 adjusted earnings of $1.56 on revenue of $1.56B beat consensus and gross margin improved to 28.1%, much of the benefit was supported by pricing, higher production absorption, healthy boating participation, and a net IEEPA benefit, while tariffs still weighed on input costs and are expected to contribute about $40M in FY26. The company’s updated FY26 framework for revenue of $5.70B-$5.80B, adjusted EPS of $4.35-$4.75, operating margin of about 8.0%, and free cash flow above $400M still assumes a flattish U.S. retail boat market and continued resilience in premium boats, which suggests the upside case remains dependent on favorable end-market conditions and offsetting ongoing inflationary and tariff pressures.