BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

BigBear.ai Holdings Inc is positioned for a positive long-term outlook due to its improving revenue visibility as it approaches 2026, supported by a strengthened balance sheet and favorable industry trends. The company's alignment with the current administration's investment priorities enhances its potential for growth, particularly in its core areas of artificial intelligence and decision intelligence solutions. Additionally, the anticipated generation of approximately $25 million in annual recurring revenue from its Ask Sage product signifies a significant year-over-year increase, highlighting the company's robust growth trajectory.

BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. has reported a notable decline in revenue, with 3Q25 figures at $33.1 million compared to $41.5 million in the same quarter last year, while revising its full-year guidance downward to a range of $125 million to $140 million, significantly lower than the previous expectation of $160 million to $180 million. Additionally, gross margins have contracted, recorded at 22.4% for 3Q25, which is below the anticipated 24.0% and down from 25.9% a year prior, indicating potential inefficiencies or increased costs. These financial setbacks, compounded by ongoing government shutdown pressures, suggest a challenging outlook for the company's revenue growth and operational profitability.